Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 121.210896 139.725358 160.828929 186.814232 218.154283 254.991446 301.948244
2025-12-07 97.096138 120.219671 149.047094 188.158483 240.671214 309.963010 410.414479
2025-12-14 83.179334 108.570031 142.424307 191.939683 264.388444 369.640055 540.274993
2025-12-21 72.390688 98.412348 134.976793 191.770413 280.955205 421.538477 673.062183
2025-12-28 67.476616 95.233685 136.188233 203.543512 316.852586 510.683163 894.866100
2026-01-04 62.892926 91.651616 135.909806 212.453410 349.450046 602.208365 1154.847290
2026-01-11 58.722052 88.002492 134.769658 219.387504 379.678196 697.180703 1460.869286
2026-01-18 54.487497 83.640964 131.725698 222.244744 402.639529 783.961601 1787.766713
2026-01-25 50.398472 78.993410 127.499897 222.075016 419.364242 862.090713 2131.706491
2026-02-01 46.120981 73.543725 121.159299 216.776218 424.160380 914.351662 2431.885345
2026-02-08 42.361692 68.601190 115.131366 211.115332 426.919135 962.518472 2747.643959
2026-02-15 39.165962 64.341584 109.869487 206.191631 430.298241 1013.392295 3104.570605
2026-02-22 38.358047 64.383057 112.859748 219.454153 480.957549 1214.052046 4177.655713
2026-03-01 36.332273 61.986942 110.866897 221.605804 504.840655 1347.987046 5115.467103
2026-03-08 34.769255 60.305025 110.086716 226.372298 536.964308 1522.387754 6438.781095
2026-03-15 32.884458 57.824540 107.388268 226.202747 555.573364 1660.559335 7754.026726
2026-03-22 32.444767 58.123579 110.510070 240.655898 620.711228 2001.809590 10847.388791
2026-03-29 31.703230 57.740201 112.112877 251.616285 678.928854 2353.193433 14791.926281
2026-04-05 30.809354 56.957510 112.736949 260.160223 732.368715 2721.098258 19883.067352
2026-04-12 29.622892 55.457984 111.571068 263.684563 770.153614 3044.231088 25605.666573
2026-04-19 28.284366 53.524898 109.200339 263.475221 794.863101 3321.411167 31881.606518
2026-04-26 26.662019 50.859270 104.851126 256.941740 794.436147 3465.238339 36983.557927
2026-05-03 25.141573 48.310151 100.554654 249.970382 790.765993 3592.037374 42523.262795